Enhancing Autonomous Ship Safety Through Fallback State-Driven Mission Replanning

Introduction:

The concept of fallback states plays a pivotal role in ensuring the safety and reliability of autonomous ships. Fallback states represent predefined courses of action during autonomous operations to mitigate potential hazards, such as adverse weather conditions or system failures. However, uncertainties surrounding the availability of these fallback states can pose significant challenges, potentially jeopardizing the safety of ongoing operations. A robust autonomous control system should dynamically reassess mission plans based on the uncertainty associated with fallback state availability to ensure safe navigation. This project aims to develop a prototype for a risk-based framework for mission replanning.

Objective:

The objective of this specialization/master project is to develop a prototype for a risk-based framework for replanning operational phases of a mission in response to uncertainty regarding the availability of fallback states. This framework will consider the potential consequences of fallback state unavailability and assess the likelihood of these consequences occurring. As an initial approach, the system will evaluate and compare predefined alternatives for the mission phase to mitigate risks effectively.

Proposed Approach:

  1. Literature Study: Conduct an extensive literature study to explore existing methodologies for assessing uncertainty in fallback state availability, risk-based mission planning in autonomous systems, and decision-making frameworks for replanning operations. Identify relevant concepts, methodologies, and best practices to inform the development of the risk-based framework.
  2. Use Case Definition: Define a set of use cases representing scenarios where fallback state unavailability may impact mission objectives. These use cases will serve as the basis for prototyping the risk-based framework and evaluating its effectiveness in addressing real-world challenges.
  3. Development of Risk Assessment Metrics: Design and develop metrics to quantify the uncertainty surrounding the availability of fallback states, the potential consequences of fallback state unavailability, and the likelihood of these consequences occurring. Utilize probabilistic modeling techniques to assess and prioritize risks associated with mission phases.
  4. Prototype Development: Develop a risk-based framework for replanning operational phases of a mission based on the identified uncertainties and risk assessments. Implement algorithms to dynamically evaluate mission plans, considering alternative courses of action and selecting the most suitable approach to mitigate risks effectively within the context of each use case.
  5. Integration with Autonomous Ship Simulator: Integrate the developed prototype framework with an autonomous ship simulator to facilitate real-time simulation-based testing and validation.
  6. Testing and Validation: Conduct rigorous testing and validation of the prototype framework using simulated scenarios based on the predefined use cases.
  7. Reporting: Document the development process, methodologies, and findings in a comprehensive thesis report. Present the results of the framework validation, including its capabilities, performance metrics, and potential areas for further improvement in future iterations.

This specialization/master project will be conducted in collaboration with Kongsberg Maritime, a leading provider of maritime technology solutions.